Disappointing data

MONTHS of disappointing economic data has led a disappointing preliminary estimate for growth in the second quarter of output. Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, less than expected and the lowest rate since the third quarter last year. Real GDP growth for the first quarter growth revised to 3.7%, one percentage point higher than was estimated last. However, was 2.64 percentage point increase at the beginning of the recovery that due to changes in the stock (a transitional factor, growth tends to fuel). Meanwhile, put the annual review of income and the rest of the overall product growth in 2007, 2008 and 2009. For the moment it seems as if the growth is leveling off, even if the real output has reached its pre-recession.

Closer inspection of the data in the second quarter, there are good and bad news. The contribution of private investment in higher growth and residential investment and the state and local government spending turned drawn to contributors to this growth. But other signs are less positive. Inventory adjustment provided for a total of 1.05 percentage points, the number of points of 2.4%. The contribution of personal consumption growth to fall from the first quarter to the second. And while exports increased back to the imports. Renewed weakness in the dollar can improve strength in net exports in the third quarter, but for now set the pressure on Congress to trade protection measures and will certainly become. Overall, the underlying growth is very weak, and in the coming quarters and the Government's contribution is part of the change, or negative fall. All indicators suggest that growth in half a second faster than the average growth rate there first.

This means that the economy even taken the fight to the lower end of the production forecasts of the Federal Reserve. And the price index for personal consumption expenditure continued to tick down.

The result is likely to debate at the August meeting of the Fed move and it is very likely that increasing calls for new impetus in the Capitol. The fastest growth in the previous two quarters could not generate much in the buoyancy in the employment field, and the legislature, especially before an election November fear may be that the economic recovery will slow further in a weak economic growth. But there are some simple answers. Last week the Senate approved just a small area of 34000000000 $ in unemployment benefits. The best hope for American workers and disadvantaged groups, can be renewed interest in the legislature of the expansionary policies of the Fed.